Overcoming Skepticism in Emerging Technologies
The Metaverse: A Historical Perspective
New technologies often trigger enthusiasm and scepticism in equal measure, with the metaverse no exception. Although the concept of virtual worlds dates back to the 1930s, it has been explored in various forms through fiction and real-world use cases since the 1950s. Terms like “the spatial web,” “cyber-reality,” “the virtual world,” and “extended reality” (or “XR”) have been used interchangeably to describe the metaverse. Despite its evolution, the killer app driving mass adoption remains unidentified. Nevertheless, the concept’s longevity and its vast potential make it worth considering.
Learning from History: Skepticism and Technological Breakthroughs
History is filled with instances where experts initially dismissed world-changing innovations as pointless, dangerous, or even laughable before proving their critics wrong. Some notable examples include rail travel, the telephone, light bulbs, automobiles, aeroplanes, television, and the Internet. Their success might seem obvious, but at the time, scepticism prevailed.
Several factors contribute to the scepticism that often surrounds new technologies. For one, some technologies take time to reach maturity and mass adoption and may rely on developing infrastructure that still needs to be created. For example, the steam engine took centuries to evolve from its ancient Greek origins to Thomas Newcomen’s industrial adaptation and James Watt’s innovations that truly ushered in the age of steam. Similarly, the metaverse is still in its infancy, and experts predict it may take years or even decades to realize its full potential.
Cognitive Biases and Age: Barriers to Embracing the New
Human cognitive biases can significantly impact our ability to assess unfamiliar ideas’ potential objectively. Biases like “not invented here” syndrome, status quo bias, negativity bias, congruence bias, and confirmation bias can make people suspicious of novel technologies, favour the familiar, and lead to a spiral of self-satisfied assumptions. These biases are further exacerbated when promised breakthroughs take longer than anticipated.
Age can also play a role in our openness to new technologies. As author Douglas Adams observed, people tend to view technologies invented during their youth as exciting and revolutionary. In contrast, those invented later in life may seem against the natural order of things. Thus, it is essential to maintain self-awareness and be inquisitive when evaluating the prospects of innovations.
Finding the Balance: Embracing Unfamiliar Ideas
As we assess new technologies and their potential, we should actively seek out our blind spots, examining use cases, business cases, and constraints to conclude their utility. Recognizing the human tendency to fall back on heuristic approaches or instinctive responses when confronted with the unfamiliar is crucial.
While it may be easy to dismiss critics of innovations as reactionary or unimaginative, it can also be too easy to dismiss others as gullible for buying into “fads” that may seem nonsensical in the moment. As we evaluate new ideas and technologies, let’s strive for a balanced approach that recognizes the potential of unfamiliar concepts while maintaining a healthy scepticism.
Emerging technologies like the metaverse may face scepticism and enthusiasm, but it’s crucial to learn from history and recognize the factors contributing to distrust. By overcoming cognitive biases and age-related barriers, we can embrace unfamiliar ideas and innovations with an open mind, ultimately unveiling their potential and driving the future of technology.
